Northern NJ Housing Snapshot: buyers are cautious, rates are easing, and inventory is finally giving you options

TL;DR Contract signings were basically flat across the U.S. in July as buyers stayed cautious, even though inventory is the highest since 2020 and price growth is cooling. In the Northeast, contract signings slipped a bit. Mortgage rates just hit a 10-month low, which could pull more buyers off the sidelines as we head into fall. (National Association of REALTORS®)

What NAR just reported

NAR’s latest read on pending home sales shows a 0.4% month-over-month dip in July and a 0.7% gain year over year. Inventory is at the highest level since 2020 and prices are rising at the slowest pace since 2023. Translation: there is finally a little breathing room for shoppers. In the Northeast, pending contracts fell 0.6% on the month and 0.6% year over year. (National Association of REALTORS®)

Rates: meaningful drift lower

The average 30-year fixed is 6.56% as of August 28. That is a 10-month low and a small but real nudge to affordability. If rates keep grinding down, eligibility and confidence improve. (Freddie Mac, Freddie Mac)

New Jersey supply picture

New Jersey’s for-sale inventory is up 11% year over year, with months of supply around 3 statewide. More homes. Slightly slower price growth. Still not a buyer stampede, but the logjam is loosening. (Redfin)

County-by-county pulse for North Jersey

Latest July data snapshots you can take to the bank. Of course, there is a micro market, where some towns perform better or worse than the county average.

• Bergen County: median sale price $790k; +5.3% year over year; average DOM 72. Volume slightly down vs last year. (Redfin)

• Essex County: median $705k; -0.7% YoY; DOM 53 vs 22 last year. Pace cooled; pricing discipline matters. (Redfin)

• Morris County: median $718k; +5.2% YoY; DOM 20. Still quick when priced right. (Redfin)

• Passaic County: median $580k; +3.0% YoY; DOM 58. Buyers have a touch more time to act. (Redfin)

• Union County: median $695k; +7.4% YoY; DOM 20. Demand stays sturdy near transit hubs. (Redfin)

• Hudson County: median $725k; +1.4% YoY; DOM 57. Mixed signals; condos vary by micro-market. (Redfin)

• Sussex County: median $440k; +2.3% YoY; DOM 25. Value play for space and land. (Redfin)

What this means if you are buying in North Jersey

• You have more choice than last year, and sellers are more open to negotiation in many segments. NAR notes about half the country is seeing price reductions. Pair that with a rate dip and you have leverage you did not have in 2023 or 2024. (National Association of REALTORS®)

• Get fully underwritten, not just pre-qualified. Then use a rate-lock with float-down option to protect yourself if rates slide again.

• Be surgical: in Essex and Hudson, days on market climbed. In Morris and Union, the good stuff still moves fast. Aim for clean terms and targeted concessions instead of lowballs.

What this means if you are selling

• Price to the market that exists, not the one you wish for. With inventory up and buyers choosier, your first 14 days are the money window. (Redfin)

• Expect more negotiation. Consider strategic tools like a temporary rate buydown or closing-cost credit to widen the buyer pool without chasing price down.

• Presentation still wins. Pre-inspection, light refresh, and a tight media package will separate your listing when a shopper can pick from three decent options instead of one.

Looking forward

If rates edge toward the low-6s, I expect a measurable bump in showings and offers as pent-up movers re-engage. The Northeast underperformed in July on contracts, so our region could be primed for a catch-up if affordability nudges a bit more. Keep your plan flexible; the first two weeks after Labor Day often tell the fall story. (National Association of REALTORS®, Freddie Mac)